PSX: MLCF

Maple Leaf Cement

Deep Dive Investment Analysis | Nov 2025

PKR 105.40
Target: PKR 130 - 150
+23% Upside Potential
Strong Buy
9.9x
P/E Ratio
Undervalued
+117%
Net Profit Growth
Record FY25 Earnings
9.1x
Interest Coverage
Strong Solvency
19.1%
ROE
Excellent Returns

Financial Strength (FY25)

Gross Margin 34.4% (Industry Leading)
Debt Reduction Down 68% (vs FY19)
Net Income Growth +117% YoY

Record profits of PKR 17.0B driven by strategic fuel mix, cost optimization, and strong market positioning.

Valuation & Target

Upside Potential

23% - 42%
Current
105.40
Target
130.00
High
150.00
Buy Range PKR 98 - 102
Stop Loss PKR 92.00

Bull Case (Why Buy?)

  • Game Changer Acquisition: Pioneer Cement acquisition to boost capacity to 13M tons.
  • Record Profits: PAT of PKR 17.03 Billion (FY25) showing massive growth.
  • Deleveraging: Debt down 68% from FY19 peak; Net Cash Positive.
  • Macro Tailwinds: Declining interest rates to boost construction demand.

Risk Factors

  • Acquisition Risk: Deal failure could trigger 8-12% correction.
  • Cyclical Nature: Sensitive to construction slowdowns.
  • Coal Prices: Volatility in global coal prices affects margins.

Peer Comparison

Company P/E Ratio Market Cap Gross Margin EPS Growth
Maple Leaf (MLCF) 9.9x PKR 114B 34.4% +117%
Fauji Cement (FCCL) 9.6x PKR 128B 35% +62%
Lucky Cement (LUCK) 10.5x PKR 626B ~30% Moderate
Bestway Cement (BWCL) 10.0x PKR 343B ~28% Moderate

Investor Action Plan

Entry Strategy

Accumulate on dips between PKR 98-102. Target accumulation zone.

Time Horizon

12-18 Months. Allow acquisition integration & rate cuts to drive demand.

Stop Loss

PKR 92.00 (Strict risk management).